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A mere 60 days ago when Morgan Rogers was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed while the Villa manager admonished him over missing a penetrating pass. At that point, with the team endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear if Rogers' form were a symptom or the source of the side's more general malaise.

“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”

In the latest match, however, the touchline reaction was entirely much more joyous. After Rogers drilled in his second to reclaim the lead for Villa, Emery tore off his jacket, opened his arms and bellowed. The team marched on to a tenth straight victory and despite not winning any of their first six matches, are somehow just three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.

Is This Team Serious Challengers?

This is an exceptionally difficult question to address. The historical record, a general sense of the club, suggests not. Additionally, their performances haven't been entirely convincing this season, while the victories have piled up.

According to statistical analysis, twice all season has the team registered an expected goals figure notably superior than the opposition. For a club which has strung together a ten-match winning streak, Villa appear strangely fragile – however currently the fine lines are swinging for them.

The Rogers Recipe

The current approach seems to be to exchange chances with rivals and then rely on their talisman to rescue them with some crisp finishes. It happened against Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and it happened versus United.

Rogers' first goal stemmed from a superb shot, curled just inside the post from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal was essentially a somewhat messier replica of his first as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

Is It Sustainable?

Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opposition registered more efforts and more shots on target. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those games.

Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge the club have to face in the near future. Their key man, surely, will not continue to drilling the ball into the top corner forever.

A Case for Belief

Could it be a different scenario where, instead of results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures may yet rediscover their best form.

• The centre-forward may begin to finding the net regularly.
• The attacking talent could transform into the performer he resembled in Germany.
• The injured centre-backs are set to regain fitness, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable backline.

Maybe within that lies the seeds for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.

Relishing the Unlikely

Yet, this is a surprise. Few believed Aston Villa would be in the top three for the holidays. And certainly two months ago, nobody thought Rogers as the year closed would be spearheading a hunt for the title and appearing as an essential player for the national team.

The current run is to be savoured for the very reason that it appears so improbable. As Rogers stood in front of the Villa faithful when the game ended leading the celebrations, it was clear to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are rare in football and must be appreciated.